MBS Live Recap: Bonds Unable to Break Key Level Ahead of Key Events

The Day Ahead discussed the year's previous closing high of 2.95% in 10yr yields.  It hadn't come into play too terribly much until the past 3 sessions.  Last week's rally stopped just short of breaking 2.95%.  Then yesterday, yields rose back above the key level by the end of the session after temporarily trading slightly lower.  Now today, it served as a floor for the morning's most active trading.

All that having been said, this morning's trading was only "active" when compared to the rest of the day.  Overseas market closures have taken a toll on volume and liquidity.  This is one of several reasons to look to the 2nd half of the week for more inspiration.

Tomorrow's key events include the ADP Employment data at 8:15am.  To be sure, that's a hit-and-miss report when it comes to market reactions, but the potential is there, at least.  A short while later, Treasury will announce the auction amounts for the upcoming quarter.  Given that "supply" is one of the key themes driving rates higher during the Trump Administration, every little update matters to bond traders.  Treasury has already reported the total amount of issuance, but traders want to know how it will be broken down between long and short-term debt.