MBS Live Recap: Bonds Add Exclamation Point to Yesterday's Breakout

The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week.  On Thursday and Friday, yields hugged the upper boundaries of that trend, simultaneously shying away from the sort of positive bounce that would typically suggest the trend's continuation.  No matter!  Perhaps they just needed to think things over for the weekend  and things would look different on Monday.

Nope!  In fact, bonds weakened on Monday, which just about put the nail in the coffin of the Springtime Trend, but Tuesday's resilience raised doubts.  By yesterday, however, we probably had our final answer with the big break above 2.835% and even a modest break above 2.86% in 10yr yields.  

Today's overnight weakness was plenty to put a period at the end of Springtime Consolidation's story.  As the morning progressed, the period turned into an exclamation point.  Yields ultimately hit 2.934% before settling back down to 2.91+ to drift into to close.  From here, we're watching early February highs closely.

As for the story behind the weakness, it was discussed in extreme detail in today's MBS Huddle.