MBS Live Day Ahead: Syria Headlines Help, but CPI, Auctions, and Fed Remain in Focus

Bonds were flat yet again in the overnight session, but began to improve after Trump tweeted "get ready Russia," missiles "will be coming" in response to rising tensions in Syria.  As can be seen in the following chart, this was somewhat of a big deal for bonds, and not much of a deal for stocks.  Ultimately, it took 10yr yields back in line with recent lows (slightly below, to be fair).

The focus of the day remains on the Consumer Price Index for bond markets.  It won't necessarily have a huge impact, but it certainly reserves that right.  It's notable that the forecast for core year-over-year CPI is up to 2.1% now after months at 1.8%.  This is a case where merely hitting the median forecast consensus could be bad for bonds.  By that same rationale, it's unclear how much CPI would need to fall short by in order to give bonds an additional boost.

In the even there's not much reaction to CPI, we'd be looking toward the 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm and the FOMC meeting minutes (from 3 weeks ago) at 2pm for further guidance on near-term momentum.