Mortgage Rates Still Sideways Ahead of Key Inflation Data

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged again today.  Some lenders were slightly higher in rate, but not enough to affect the average.  Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) have been eerily calm so far this week, ostensibly with an eye on tomorrow morning's big inflation report.   As we discussed yesterday, this is one of the biggest potential motivations for rates in terms of economic data.  If inflation comes in much higher than expected, rates should also move higher.  Vice versa if inflation comes in weaker.


Loan Originator Perspective

I continue to find very little benefit with floating in today's market.   Bonds are currently just below 2.80, so at the bottom of the range that has held up for quite some time from 2.80 to around 2.90.   All attempts for bonds to break 2.80 are quickly met with selling.  So lock the lows and lock in today. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area

Holding ground at this point. Continue to carefully watch loans that are unlocked. -Al Hensling, Mortgage Originator

Bond markets idled today, but treasury yields crept back over 2.8%.  Unless DC drama increases considerably, still appears we're in a rising rate trend.  I'm locking new loans sooner, not later. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.5%
  • FHA/VA - 4.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.875%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.5-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. 

  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the beginning of 2018

  • The scariest part of the move higher looks like it ended as of early February, and rates have been generally sideways since then

  • Even so, the potential remains for more weakness (i.e. higher rates).  It makes more sense to remain defensive (i.e. more inclined to lock) until we've seen a more convincing shift lower.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.