MBS Live Day Ahead: Without a Rally, Bonds Build a Stronger Case For Resistance

The past 2 days represented a nice little run for bonds, but unfortunately it may end up looking like one of those fool's errands that was destined to hit an unmovable brick wall.  Actually, in this case, it would be more like a brick floor for rates.  

I'm speaking, of course, of the 2.80% level that has plagued all attempts to rally very much in the month of March.  As yields managed to bounce at an equally significant ceiling in the low 2.9's on Wednesday, 2.80 seemed like the most obvious target for any decent rally.  The rally unfolded quickly and we hit 2.80 yesterday, and then again last night.  Both times, the brick floor was found to be quite intact.

In a nutshell, bonds would need to find a reason to rally back down to 2.80%, and with a jackhammer in tow, if they hope to avoid sending an even clearer message about broader momentum.  That message, in my mind, is fairly logical.  Simply put, WITHOUT something big and ugly (like a bear market in stocks, a major geopolitical event, etc), it just wouldn't make much sense for bonds to make any sustained moves toward lower rates against the backdrop of Fed tightening, increased Treasury issuance, and upside economic risks.