MBS Live Day Ahead: NFP Doesn't Matter

Just in case you haven't witnessed the multiple previous examples of the once and future king of economic data falling on deaf ears (relative to its former glory, anyway), financial markets haven't been much interested in NFP (the nonfarm payroll component of the Employment Situation report) for a couple years at least.  Part of the lack of interest is due to the current state of the economy.  As far as this expansionary cycle is concerned, labor markets are firing on all cylinders.  As such, there's nothing new to be gleaned from another strong payroll print.

What's strong?  Really anything in the 125k+ neighborhood.  Today's forecast calls for 180k from 148k previously.  We've had a few NFP prints come in lower, but markets assume those are one-off occasions unless the subsequent report corroborates.  Even then, we'd need to see a sustained shift below 100k in order for the strength of the labor market to be called into question.  At that point, NFP would become increasingly important yet again.

The big caveat to all of the above is that NFP can still APPEAR to be a big market mover on the morning of the release.  Too many traders are too emotionally invested in it for that not to be a risk.  Many traders will continue to use a combination of the NFP print and the post-NFP reaction to inform their own trading strategies.  In other words "If NFP comes in stronger/weaker than expected and other traders are buying/selling, then my gameplan is to buy/sell/hold steady."  This can create volatility this morning, but anything beyond that will have to find its own motivation.