Mortgage Rates Catch a Break With Help From Treasuries

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates caught a break today, moving lower for the first time this week and pushing back from the highest levels since early July 2017.  Like yesterday, strong demand at a Treasury auction helped US bond markets, but notably, only the longer-term maturities (10yr and 30yr bonds were the big winners).  Fortunately, the bonds that underlie mortgage rates tend to correlate well with longer-term Treasuries.

Economic data also played a role with a weaker reading on inflation at the producer level.  Tomorrow brings the much more important reading on consumer-level inflation (via the Consumer Price Index or CPI).  If CPI is similarly weak, it could steel the resolve on the part of rates to hold to recent ceilings--potentially providing a base of operations for borrowers to consider a strategy other than locking early in the loan process. 

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area


Loan Originator Perspectives

Bond markets caught a bit of a break today, as a robust 30 year treasury auction helped quell recent losses.  It's a start, but hardly evidence of a looming rally.  I'll continue locking early, until "possible" rally looks more like "probable" rally. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Bonds are having a nice day today.  Tomorrow we do get consumer inflation.  If inflation is less than thought, i think this rally can extend further.  Todays producer prices were weaker, so i am hopeful we get the same report tomorrow on consumer prices.  I like floating overnight here.  If you do want to lock, wait until as late as possible to allow your lender time to reprice for the better. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.125%
  • FHA/VA - 3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%-3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. 

  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the 4th quarter, relative to the stability and improvement seen earlier in 2017

  • The default stance for now is that this trend toward higher rates has the potential to continue.  It will take more than a few great days here and there for that outlook to change.

  • For weeks, this bullet point had warned about recent stability inviting a bigger dose of volatility.  That volatility is now here.  As such, locking is generally the better choice until the volatility is clearly dying down.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.