MBS Live Day Ahead: Big Directional Moves All About Keeping Things SIdeways

Volume swelled during the first 3 days of the week, culminating in yesterday's CPI/Fed combo and a fairly large move lower in rates.  That's what we can observe about the short-term.  

If we're looking at longer-term trends, however, yesterday's big directional move was all about keeping things sideways.  The yields seen just before the CPI data were right in line with the highest since late October.  The upper boundary of the consolidation trend was clearly being pushed and the rally that followed the data and the Fed clearly pushed back.

As the chart suggests, this makes the sideways momentum even stronger.  At this point it's bordering on uncanny.  If something other than "time" or the tax bill will challenge this sideways range, it has yet to present itself.

Today brings Retail Sales as the only top tier economic data.  Given the current aloofness regarding econ data, it's not likely that this report alone can engender enough momentum to challenge either side of the trend.  There's also the ECB (European Central Bank) press conference beginning shortly.  Sometimes these will contain market moving clues, but just as often they run the risk of putting traders back to sleep.