MBS Live Day Ahead: Focus Remains on Tomorrow

I wish I could tell you that today was destined to be an exciting opportunity for bonds to embark on some sort of epic journey (or at least to definitively break outside the range that's been containing all movement for months).  But alas, the "stuff" that MIGHT be relevant enough to elicit a breakout is at least another day away.  That's assuming that the Fed Announcement and CPI data are "relevant enough" tomorrow.

In the meantime, we have only Producer Prices on the econ data front today--a far less consequential report than tomorrow's Consumer Price Index.  Of potentially more importance to near term trading is the conclusion of this week's accelerated Treasury auction cycle with 30yr bonds at 1pm.  If yesterday's 10yr auction was any indication as to the market's appetite for longer duration debt, today's auction could be a challenge.

But even if the data and the auction leave bonds in weaker shape, there's a bit of room to run inside the prevailing consolidative range.  Moreover, even if the upper diagonal line were to break in the chart below, we'd still need to see 2.42% and 2.47% broken before beginning to entertain a bigger-picture shift in momentum.