MBS Live Day Ahead: Only Major Econ Data of The Week, Plus Fed Minutes

To be sure, market participants have one foot out the door today--either mentally, physically, or both.  This has already been made quite clear in the increasingly consolidative range that we've been tracking throughout November, but especially over the past two weeks.

Today's calendar contains the week's only significant economic data in the form of Durable Goods, which is expected to retract to 0.3 from 2.0 last month, with Cap-Ex (nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft) contracting to 0.5 from 1.7.  That may or may not be worth an exploration of one of the outer range boundaries this morning, depending on how far it falls from consensus, but even if that happens, it would be a temporary diversion.  (Note: this just came out much weaker than expected.  Bonds are rallying, but not burning any barns just yet).

Markets remain most interested in reacting to next week's tax bill developments with one exception.  There's an outside chance that this afternoon's Fed Minutes will also get some attention.  Reason being: some traders think they may contain clues that the Fed isn't as excited about hiking as markets seem to think.  That could even be a reason for recent strength in 10yr yields relative to 2yr yields.  If the Fed instead conveys high confidence in a December hike, it could be worth some weakness in the afternoon (FOMC Minutes from the previous meeting come out at 2pm).