MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Show Hand Ahead of Key Data

Bonds begin the day much-improved from yesterday's levels, effectively showing their hand ahead of today's important economic data.  In other words, they HAD been fairly equivocal so far this week--perhaps erring on the side of defensiveness as yields prodded the 2.40-2.42% ceiling.  Breaking above that would be medium-bad news, and breaking above 2.47% would be the worst shift in more than 6 months.

Bottom line, traders are buyers of bonds at these key support levels and now it's up to the econ data to support the traders!  If it does, it would confirm positive shifts in the technicals seen in the following chart.

As for overnight market movement, it is a product both of a global "risk-off" trade as well as a resurgence of yield curve flattening (green line moving lower in the following chart).

Biggest-ticket data is CPI, which hits at 8:30, along with the slightly less potent (but still relevant) Retail Sales.