MBS Live Recap: Bonds Lose Ground For 1st Time in 6 Trading Sessions

After 5 days of gains for longer-term bonds (we'll lump 10yr Treasuries and the MBS coupons that matter to rate sheets into that category), today finally turned red.  How much to read into that weakness is a matter of debate. 

On one hand, it's an exceptionally slow week where we've generally seen very low volumes and a startling absence of market-moving motivations.  On the other hand, 10yr yields have attempted to break below 2.30+ for 2 straight days and been unable to do so.  

There's something for bears and bulls in today's weakness.  Bears can stay focused on that double bounce at 2.30 and worry about a turning point for the recent rally.  That's not a bad strategy, but it could turn out to be a bit too jumpy given the absence of volume and motivation behind the weakness.

Bulls can point to the fact that this afternoon's high yields never even crested yesterday's high yields.  That won't look like it's the case on the chart because yesterday's high yields occurred in the overnight session.  Bulls might also point out that the 10yr Treasury auction was reasonably well-received despite yields being at their lowest levels (generally) in 3 weeks.

The bottom line is that a perfect utopia of ongoing improvements can't be guaranteed, but that the threats to that utopia seen today aren't threatening enough to suggest abandoning hope.  Shorter term technicals are modestly affected by this weakness, but longer-term technicals are still intact--pointing in a friendly direction for now.