MBS Live Recap: Tax Plan Overwhelms Markets, but Fails to Stir Much Reaction

Traders' eyes were far more burdened than their fingers (which push the "trade" button) today.  There was a ton of info to take in regarding the GOP's tax bill, but not much trading to be done in response.  While it was the biggest event of the day when first released this morning, the initial response was a quick "risk-off" move that favored bonds at the expense of stocks.  The latter bounced back within 2 hours and bonds simply held sideways for the rest of the day.

Incidentally, that means bonds held sideways right through the official nomination of Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair.  We knew there was a decent chance traders had already priced-in the Powell news.  Not only was that indeed the case, but markets were so exhausted (trying to make sense of the tax headlines) by the time the news came out that there wasn't much conviction left on either side of the trade.

Volumes were the 2nd lowest of the week, and right in line with recent moving averages.  Is this some sort of hesitation ahead of tomorrow's NFP?  Perhaps, but probably not.  Markets haven't been especially interested in NFP for a while.  The only tricky exception would be that NFP can still act as a marker on the calendar for new trades to be made.