MBS Live Day Ahead: Bond Momentum Shifts to Neutral Ahead of Bigger Market Movers

By: Matthew Graham •

Friday and Monday were (relatively) great days for bond markets.  For our purposes, at least, they signified an important push back against the more serious selling that began after the house passed the budget bill (the one that cleared the way for tax reform) on October 20th.  Here's the recap from the 20th, if you want to get caught up.

Yesterday and today (what we've seen so far, anyway) have been relatively more sideways an infinitely more equivocal.  While this isn't typically the way the last and first days of the month play out (we usually see more volatility around the change-over between months), we can reconcile this instance of flat bond trading as a product of indecision or anxiety ahead of the upcoming Fed and tax reform news.

Today brings the FOMC Announcement itself.  This would normally be the biggest potential market mover of any given week, but the Fed is going to have to say something very surprising in order to draw attention from the bigger Fed news looming tomorrow.  That's what Trump is expected to finalize his Fed Chair nomination.  Markets are pretty sure it's going to be Powell (the more bond-friendly option), but important variables remain.  For instance, will he also indicate that John Taylor will join the Fed in a non-Chair capacity?  That could mitigate the bond market benefit implied by a Powell nomination.

Thursday will also ostensibly bring a tax reform announcement by the House.  While that won't be anything close to a "done deal" just yet, every little bit of progress on tax reform stands a chance to hurt bond markets the more it sticks to the script outlined by the Trump administration.  Conversely, the news could help bonds if it suggests a widening rift between Trump's goals and what the House is willing to sign.  

Technicals have gone flat over the past 2 days.  Today's end-zones are at 2.36 and 2.40% in terms of 10yr Treasury yields.  Any higher and we're losing.  Any lower, and we're putting points on the board.