MBS Live Recap: It's an Uptrend!

If you haven't seen Zoolander, you won't be familiar with Billy Zane declaring "It's a walk-off," thus beginning the runway modeling battle between Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson's characters.  It's not the best line in the movie and I don't think the movie swept the Oscars, but there was something about Zane's voice that conveyed finality, urgency, resignation, and apprehension all at the same time.  

It's with a similar voice that we could look at rates today and say "it's an uptrend!"  Granted, I warned that this was an uptrend back on Monday when it looked like it wasn't an uptrend, but that warning lacked the Zane-like urgency, resignation, apprehension, and finality that today's warning deserves.

Not only is it an uptrend, but it's an uptrend that's revisited the last major ceiling only to treat it as a floor (2.42% in 10yr yields).

It's an uptrend that continued today despite European yields surging lower following the ECB tapering announcement. 

It's an uptrend that remained intact despite a distinct lack of overt motivation in other related markets or fundamental data.

After all, Pending Home Sales were very weak and stocks definitely weren't shooting the moon.  There was little else for the weakness to hang its hat on apart from the weakness itself.  Granted, I'll be the first to point out that this morning's headlines suggesting Yellen was no longer being considered for renomination as the Fed Chair served as a jumping-off point for big volume and big selling, but I'll just as quickly argue that most any trader paying attention already knew this.  Traders showed up to sell today, regardless of the news, and that news happened to be in the right place at the right time.