MBS Live Week Ahead: October Begins With a Reminder About The Trend

The current trend in bond markets is not your friend.  While it may sound trite, there's a reason we say "the trend is not your friend until it's your friend again."  This analytical platitude isn't just meaningless common sense.  It's the most basic and one of the most reliable ways to integrate technical analysis with client communications and/or lock strategy.    

In other words, when bonds are clearly in a downtrend (as they were from July through early Sept), the trend was our friend (until it wasn't our friend anymore).  As soon as yields broke above that upper trendline in early Sept, the trend became unfriendly.  After the first few instances of higher highs and higher lows, we had a new, unfriendly uptrend in rates--one that's been intact ever since.

As soon as that lower yellow line is broken, we can begin to question the negative trend and entertain a shift in our strategy.  That could happen as early as this week.

Although there are several big ticket economic reports on tap, they don't represent major points of concern for bond markets at the moment.  NFP on Friday always has the potential to cause short-term volatility, but it's not the big-picture driver of momentum that it normally is--at least not right now when the Fed is far more concerned about inflation than job growth.

Speaking of the Fed, there are numerous Fed speakers on tap throughout the week.  Their comments could continue providing fine-tuning adjustments to the general takeaway from the past few weeks.  Specifically, the Fed came off a bit more hawkish than most assumed they would.  If they take this week to push back on the takeaway, it could help bonds push back on the unfriendly trend.