MBS Live Day Ahead: Bond Sell-Off's Grinch-Like Heart Growing 2.28 Sizes

Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes?  No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had when you saw the Grinch finally on the cusp of doing something redeeming?  

Fans of low rates might be having a similar feeling today.  

The recent sell-off (or call it a "correction," if you like, as it has yet to erase the bigger rally that preceded it) has been a certifiable grinch.  9 out of the past 9 trading sessions (through yesterday) saw yields close at higher levels than they opened.  

Frustratingly, there were 2-3 days starting on Thursday or Friday of last week that made it seem like the correction was leveling off ahead of this week's Fed announcement.  Obviously, this was the bond market's attempt at an allusion Cindy Lou Hoo asking the Grinch why he was stealing the Christmas tree.  For a moment, we consider that the Grinch might actually have a change of heart in just the same way we considered that the 2.22% technical level in 10yr yields might hold up as a ceiling.

But no!  The Grinch and the bond market both let us down.  But wait!  The allusions keep coming!  

Just like the Grinch began ascending the mountain with his heart full of evil and mischief, bond yields bade farewell to 2.22 and began ascending their own metaphorical mountain.  

Now we come to the point where we can consider another change of heart.  If "3 sizes" was enough for the Grinch to turn a new leaf, perhaps 2.28 will be enough for bond markets.  It's far too early to bank on such a thing, but it's not too early for optimists to root for the Grinch.  If you're like me, you always believed the Grinch would figure things out eventually.  It was only ever a question of whether we were far enough into the movie for the plot twist.  

Whether or not we're far enough into the bond market's movie is less clear.  What we do know is that 2.28 has tons of recent precedent as a relevant pivot point.  We also know that it has served as a ceiling for yields both yesterday and so far today.  We even have reports of some big accounts making big purchases at these levels.  At the very least, it's a fantastic level to watch in order to gauge where we are in the movie.