MBS Live Recap: Bonds Drift Weaker as Traders Rush For Exits

We talk a lot about participation among traders dropping off at mid-day when European markets close, but today's version turned bond markets into a veritable ghost town.  Before that, yields had actually done a nice job of returning inside yesterday's trading range and under the 2.16% technical level after spiking early.  I'm inclined to (mostly) disregard everything after that as serendipitous leftover trading--not indicative of the real market.

Unfortunately, that won't prevent traders from selling bonds on Tuesday if that's what they're inclined to do.  It simply means today, in and of itself, wasn't quite as weak as afternoon levels would suggest.  

Back to this "spiking early" business.  What's up with that?  After all, NFP was much weaker than expected, so we should have rallied, right?  

I discuss the answers in great detail in the attached video (for MBS Live members).  The short version is that jobs data ain't what it used to be.  A weak number was fairly well baked-in.  Technicals were a bit ominous.  Month-end trading helped more than normal yesterday, and ISM Manufacturing data is really what added fuel to this morning's fire.

The bottom line is that it's too soon to call a bounce, but it is a risk that's worthy of assessing next week.