MBS Live Day Ahead: New Technical Level to Help Gauge Progress

Most of my analysis in July and August focused on the positive technical boundary (aka "floor") at 2.21-2.22.  As of yesterday, that floor is increasingly confirmed to be broken.  

One of the most definitive confirmations of a technical break occurs when prices or yields move through a technical level from one side and then return to bounce there from the other side.  This happened yesterday (in the overnight session) and the day before during the domestic session.

A bounce on 2.22 suggested a showdown with 2.18 (or 2.182% depending upon your desired level of specificity).  2.18% was broken yesterday, but as we discussed, it took the exceptionally low volume and light liquidity of the summertime trading environment to grease the skids.

Traders quickly brought yields back above 2.18 to begin today's session, but not before leaving us a small clue as to the next technical level to watch.  I wouldn't consider any of these levels to be of epic importance.  They simply help us gauge the health of the trend.  With that in mind, any break below 2.165 would signal a progression of the broader rally.

The following chart highlights recent bounces on all the aforementioned technical levels.

The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium begins today, but it's unclear as to when we'll get headlines (the program isn't even slated to be available until 8pm ET tonight).  If we go without Jackson Hole headlines during the trading session, we'll be left with only Existing Home Sales on the event calendar--not the biggest market mover in the world.  Against that backdrop, the technical levels discussed above take on more importance because they're the only game in town apart from watching the news for political drama.