MBS Live Day Ahead: Trader Ghost Town Greases Skids For Volatility

With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sentiment--admittedly not the biggest market mover in the world.  The backdrop for any potential volatility is the recent, decidedly narrow trading range.  It's allowed volatility to occur within its boundaries, but hasn't allowed a confirmed break all month (technically, we entered the range on 8/1).

Yesterday's inspiration for yields to run the range from top to bottom was the unexpected news that Trump was disbanding his councils of CEOs (or the rumors that the disbanding was imminent as CEOs had been resigning following the Charlottesville press conference).  Unlike the North Korean nuclear drama, this unexpected headline didn't result in a break of the range.  

Inspiration will be less of a prerequisite for movement over the next 2 days.  The summertime trading mentality combined with the absence of meaningful scheduled data means that markets will be less liquid and volumes muted (relative to averages).  That makes it easier for a smaller number of traders to have a bigger impact on trading levels.  If certain levels are crossed, the stop-loss levels that traders leave in place to protect against bigger moves in their absence could easily make for mini-snowball moves.

Could these mini-snowballs break the 2.21-2.28 range?  Given that we're trading at 2.215 as I type, and in the middle of a mini-snowball, we'd have to entertain that possibility.  Bigger-picture shifts in momentum, however, would continue to require successive days of confirmation, both in the form of trading levels holding outside the range and volumes being higher than they were.  Without solid confirmation, there's no guarantee that a range-breakout would be sustainable.