MBS Live Day Ahead: Core Range Intact All Week

In terms of 10yr yields, bond markets have been locked in the same narrow range for a week and half.  Even when the range was only 2 days old last week, it seemed likely that it would come to a head by tomorrow's CPI data.  With the boundaries still firmly intact, that seems increasingly likely.

The only caveat is that the passing of today's 30yr bond auction presents an opportunity for a "lead-off" in bonds.  For instance, let's say that traders would like to be buying more bonds at the moment in response to the weak PPI data this morning, but have to hold off due to the impending 30yr auction.  AFTER the auction, those inhibitions would be lowered, and the more natural momentum could commence.  

Even then, I doubt anyone wants to stray too far out of bounds ahead of what has been the biggest market-mover in terms of economic data over the past 3 months (CPI).  We'll talk about this in much greater detail tomorrow, but in a nutshell, inflation data is the last sticking point for the Fed.  It is seen as largely dictating the pace of the removal of accommodation.  In other words, it will determine how many more rate hikes we see, how quickly we see them, and how strictly the Fed is able to stick to their "once a quarter" plan for tapering its balance sheet reinvestments (still seen as being announced in just over a month a the September meeting).

A firm break below 2.21% this afternoon could result in some snowball buying that tests the next technical barrier at 2.18, but that's more likely to follow a weak inflation reading tomorrow.  A strong reading would create an equal likelihood of moving back up toward 2.28%, but of course, there are varying levels of strength and weakness.  Anything less than a 0.2-0.3% deviation from forecasts in Core CPI won't necessarily rock the boat too much.