MBS UPDATE: The Beat Goes On... As In The "Beat Down"

By: Matthew Graham

You name it: treasuries, stocks, MBS....  All are getting hammered today, treasuries the most severely, with the 10 yr now down well over a point and the 30 yr well over 2 points.

MBS, as is their custom, have lost a lot less blood than tsy's, but it's starting to get ugly again as we crossed our "post selloff plateau"--a price of 99-26 that held up for 3 bounces starting at 12:30.  After we broke that, we're moving rapidly towards 99-21 in MBS, right at that good 'ol long term floor.    Hopefully we can get some sort of bounce around there.  Here's what the chart looks like:

Even if you've seen reprices for the worse, more may be on the way.  If we cross the 99-19 to 99-21 range meaningfully and hold under that by Monday (throwing tomorrow out basically), it's not a good thing.  If we cross that range meaningfully today, it's not much better, but anyone floating deals could still hold out for a bounce on Monday.  Whatever the case, if you didn't lock on last Thursday's rather firm lock recommendation, and find yourself floating, locking now would prevent intraday losses if you've only seen a mild loss so far today.  If, on the other hand, you're at least half a point worse over yesterday, you might sit tight and see what the long term floor line does for us.