Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Near Recent Highs

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage rates improved somewhat today, on average, but the gains were modest.  Some lenders were unchanged from Friday afternoon's latest levels.  That leaves us essentially in line with the highest rates since early April, after having been at 8-month lows just 2 weeks ago.  From 8-month lows to 3-month highs is an abrupt move taken at face value, but it's made possible due to a narrow range persisting during that time (relative to other stretches of 8 months of time).

In terms of today's finer detail, it may as well have been a 3rd day of the weekend as far as bond markets (which underlie rates) were concerned.  Trading levels haven't moved out of their recently higher, narrower range since last Thursday morning.  That will likely change--if not tomorrow, then shortly thereafter.  The second half of the week has several bigger-ticket events that have the potential to create volatility for rates.  These include economic reports, bond auctions, congressional testimony from Fed Chair Yellen, and the constantly lurking risk of headlines out of Europe (the initial reason rates began moving quickly higher 2 weeks ago).

 See Rates from Lenders in Your Area


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.125%
  • FHA/VA - 3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm

  • Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April.  Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher.  Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
     
  • For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement.  Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
     
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.