MBS Live Recap: Bonds Erase Yesterday's Weakness Without Much Help

Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues.  To some extent, several Fed speakers got some attention, but the best we can do here is to pick out only the comments that reinforce the rally and tell you about those.  And that doesn't seem very fair, considering the there were Fed comments that argued for bond market weakness.

Treasuries improved modestly overnight with help from Europe (friendly comments from Bank of England president and weak inflation in Germany).  The spillover was minimal, however.  Gains improved during domestic hours when US traders and European traders were active at the same time.  After Europe was out of the day, so were bond market gains.  Yes, it really looks that simple: slight strength in Europe + slight strength in the US = noticeable strength in the US morning hours.  

For what it's worth, the Fed comments that served the purpose of the rally were primarily from Chicago Fed's Evans who said he was nervous about recently soft inflation and that something else might be holding it back (apart from the Fed's traditional "transitory" narrative).  Evans concluded that we'd need a shallower path of rate hikes if "something else" is indeed having an effect.

In the bigger picture, the gains keep the recent sideways trend intact.  That trend exists inside a broader downtrend, as discussed in the attached video.  A move higher in rates today would have challenged both of those trends.  In that sense, the gains simply kept hope alive by keeping broader bond market momentum on the proverbial fence.