Builder Confidence Declines on Labor/Lot Shortages

Builder confidence in the new home market appeared to take a tumble in June, per the latest survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped 2 points from the May level to 67.  In addition, May reading was revised down from 70 to 69.

Analysts surveyed by Econoday had not expected a change in the June HMI, forecasting another 70 reading.

The HMI is constructed from responses to a survey NAHB has conducted for more than 30 years among its new-home builder members.  They are asked to provide their perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components were down from the previous month. The component gauging current sales conditions was down 2 points to 73 while expectations for the next six months also lost 2 points, falling to 76. Perceptions of buyer traffic dropped below the benchmark, scoring 49, also a loss of 2 points.

NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald said, "Builder confidence levels have remained consistently sound this year, reflecting the ongoing gradual recovery of the housing market." Chief Economist Robert Dietz added, "As the housing market strengthens and more buyers enter the market, builders continue to express their frustration over an ongoing shortage of skilled labor and buildable lots that is impeding stronger growth in the single-family sector."

Builder confidence lost ground in all four regions.  The HMI in the Midwest and South edged one 1 lower to 67 and 70 respectively. The Northeast had a score of 46 and the West 76, each down 2 points from May.