MBS Live Recap: Next Week Should be More Interesting

Today was a non-starter, despite the presence of economic data that certainly had the street cred to move markets (if markets were inclined to move).  

GDP cam in stronger than expected at +1.2 vs +0.9 forecast, as did Durable Goods (-0.7 vs -1.2 forecast).  The biggest counterpoint in the data was the weakness in the "Cap-Ex" component of Durable Goods (officially... "Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft") which came in at 0.0 vs 0.5 forecast.  Think of Cap-Ex like the "core" component in the same way "Core CPI" is thought to be more relevant than plain old CPI. 

Whether the Cap-Ex miss was enough to justify bond market ground-holding is at moot point.  Traders didn't trade the data either way.  The day ended up being an opportunity for US bond markets to slowly inch back to yesterday's closing levels after having been pulled into stronger territory overnight by European bond markets. 

Things should be more interesting next week as we'll have the month-end trading environment as well as NFP on Friday.