MBS Live Day Ahead: Data Casts Vote on Recent Trend Shift

Up until yesterday, the past week and a half of trading ran the risk of taking the shape of an uptrend leading back from the lows that followed last week's political drama.  Things have been surprisingly quiet on the headline front when it comes to said drama.  Even the rumor mill has been slow to churn.  This has facilitated an "openness" on the part of bond markets to put more stock in other events and data.  

The most obvious turning point over this time was Wednesday's FOMC Minutes (which account for the big bounce in the chart below).  Subsequent trading has vetted that bounce and contributed to more of a sideways vibe (as opposed to the uptrend that had been intact--shown in the white lines in the lower pane of the chart).

Today's only major data will hit presently in the form of April Durable Goods and the 2nd reading on Q2 GDP.  Consumer Sentiment is out at 10am, but has less market movement potential.  Markets close at 2pm today and will be fully closed on Monday due to Memorial Day.