MBS Live Day Ahead: Rally Intact But At Risk For a Bounce

I can't emphasize this enough: when bond markets have a day like they had yesterday, it's often followed shortly thereafter by a correction.  In the case of a true rally with staying power, that will be a temporary correction, lasting one day.  It wouldn't erase more than half of the previous day's gains.  

In the case of a head-fake rally, the correction would erase a majority--if not all--of the previous day's gains.  

It's impossible to know which of the two we're looking at based on this morning's trading levels, but we do that the more aggressive momentum indicators are already suggesting the rally is ready and waiting for a cue to bounce.  These can be seen in the chart below.  The first is the Bollinger Band study--the purple lines around the Treasury candlesticks.  Hitting one of the outer Bollinger Bands is akin to a tachometer hitting its rev limiter.  The driver of the car may continue to keep the throttle pinned, but it's only a matter of time before the engine has to slow down.

Sometimes a chart can operate for days and days trading near or beyond an outer Bollinger Band.  They're actually most useful to watch for the move back toward the middle.  In other words, as soon as yields put in a day without hitting the outer line, we'll know momentum has shifted.  Clearly, they've already hit that line in the overnight session today, so we could add another provision that says if yields were to go at least half-way back toward the middle Bollinger Band, they're more likely to continue in that direction.

Data and scheduled calendar events are of no consequence today.  This market is on the edge of its seat for scandal-related headlines, newswires, tweets, rumors, and whatever else it can get its hands on with respect to yesterday's Trump/Comey/Chaffetz news.