MBS Live Day Ahead: New Day Dawns for Bonds as Trump Scandal Takes Spotlight

I hate politics and talking about political issues with anyone, ever, unless they have a clear and specific impact on bond markets.  That was the case with the US presidential election in November.  It was the case as policymaking hit roadblocks in March.  And it's the case again today as the concept of "impeachment" has become increasingly prevalent in the wake of whatever everyone wants to call the current Trump/Comey/Flynn scandal.  

You can read about the details of the scandal pretty much anywhere else (indeed, it's hard to miss them if you open a web browser or turn on the TV).  But only 2 things matters for bond markets:

1. This situation has to be "dealt with" in some way, but the administration and congress.  That does PR damage to the administration and it takes time and energy from all sides.  All of the above get in the way of the fiscal policy changes that are supposed to be driving stocks and rates higher.  Therefore, stocks and rates move lower.

2. To whatever extent impeachment potential materializes, it would be a massive "risk-off" motivation for markets, if for no other reason than the uncertainty created (not to mention the implication of fiscal policy potential immediately dying).

The biggest risk to bond markets for now is that the rally could be short-lived if global markets find a way to come out of panic mode.  Otherwise, the new downtrend is taking shape.