MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Sitting on a Big Fence Heading Into Next Week's Fed

Bond markets are very much on a fence at the moment with respect to short and intermediate trends.  There are a few ways we can measure this fence-sitting.  The most basic would be to look at "pivot points" that have recently made a name for themselves.  2.31% is a good example as it's been the modal bottom of the post-election range.  In this context, "modal" refers to the most frequently recurring example of a particular technical level.  In other words, 2.31% has seen more "floor bounces" than any other potential floor level.

Another way to look at fence-sitting would be with a technical overlay such as Bollinger Bands (click the link if you really want to dig into them), which plot a 21-day exponential moving average and 2 lines that mirror the moving average.  The 2 extra lines are 2 standard deviations away from the mid-point.  In general, markets spend most of their time in between those 2 boundaries.  When they touch or break one of the outside lines, it speaks to swifter momentum in that direction.  When markets move back across the mid-point, it raises the risk of momentum shifting in the other direction.

Right now, 10yr yields (our spokesperson for broader bond market momentum for these reasons) are on the fence both in terms of outright levels (that 2.31% line) and Bollinger Bands (they're right on the mid-point--that 21-day exponential moving average).  

If we're not quite satisfied with the "on-the-fence" assessment, we can look at other technicals that are willing to give more of an opinion at the expense of decreased accuracy.   The MACD bars at the bottom of the following chart fit this bill.  They essentially measure the distance between 2 moving averages--typically the 14 and 26-day.  MACD is also pretty close to "on the fence," but it's suggesting that the most recent momentum has been weaker (something we already know).  If those green bars keep going higher, it would mean stronger negative momentum.

We shouldn't expect any revelations about a shift in the trend until we see a bigger move away from these various mid-points.  In terms of outright levels, we'd be looking for 2.39% or 2.17% to break.  In terms of Bollinger Bands, we'd be looking for a visit to (or break of) one of the outside lines.  In terms of MACD and other momentum indicators, we'd be looking for taller and taller bars or a sustained break below the "0" line.  I highlighted a few recent examples in the bottom of the chart.

We've already seen today's economic data, and it had essentially no impact by the time morning trading ramped up.  Econ data continues to play an ensemble role in the current drama.  Geopolitics have no-doubt been a big deal, as has fiscal policy.  But now, we're getting close enough to next week's Fed Announcement that we can assume markets are hesitating to move too far off the fence until they see what the Fed has to say.  We'll be talking more and more about the Fed meeting next week.