MBS Live Recap: Slightly Stronger, but Far From Finding Answers

Bond markets have a question.  Will we or won't we be heading back into the sideways, post-election rate range?  for top tier mortgage rates, the range is roughly 4.125-4.25%.  For 10yr yields, it's the 2.3-2.6% range that we've been discussing for months.

Today's trading was positive for bond markets, but it didn't offer a comment on the aforementioned ranges.  10yr yields ended the day right at 2.2999 (let's call it 2.30%).  While that's better than a definitive move back above the 2.3% range boundary, it's certainly not enough of an improvement to suggest a great willingness to remain below the rate boundary.  

In other words, rates are waiting for the next big move.  We had a distinct rally from mid-March to mid-April, then a distinct correction since April 18th.  The past 2 days of modest gains bring that correction to an end, but we have to wonder if the relative resilience is just a head-fake driven by temporary motivations (like month-end bond buying).  Either way, we probably won't get a clear picture until the first few trading days of May (starting next Monday).