MBS Live Day Ahead: Bond Markets Asks: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Another day, another chance for bond markets to assess whether they should re-enter the previous 2017 range (or "post-election" range).  This is marked by 10yr yields of roughly 2.3-2.6%, but given that we're so close to one of the range boundaries, it's worth noting that 2.315% has been a more specific pivot point that 2.3%.  Studies show that saying "two point three one five" makes one sound too poindexter-ish, so it's best to stick to "two point three" in casual conversation.

But I digress... The point is that we're on the edge of the old range we just broke below in mid-April.  If we treat 2.3-ish as a ceiling over the next few days, it will bode well for our longer-term prospects.  

With yesterday's somewhat anticlimactic tax reform announcement out of the way, markets are moving to other things.  Fiscal policy will continue to be important, given the government shutdown mini-drama that might be lurking, but we'll have to wait for stories to break before getting a feel for how bonds want to react.

In the meantime, there's Europe.  European monetary policy and geopolitics have always been a key consideration for US bond markets, but some developments are more important than others.  The French election was definitely not great for bonds, and the runoff election on May 7th could add to that weakness if the results are as expected (a healthy victory for Macron).

Today, specifically, we're hearing from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi in a press conference following the latest ECB announcement (which kept everything unchanged).

Domestic economic data is second fiddle to all of the above.  Durable Goods and Jobless Claims are already out and have had no impact.