MBS Live Recap: More Focus on Europe. More Weakness For Bonds

Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days.  Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to US bond markets reaching an important technical level and hopping on to the nearest bandwagon of trading inspiration.  

To be sure, France is not the US when it comes to the country's impact on the global economy.  And Marine Le Pen is not Donald Trump.  Nonetheless, markets have viewed a Le Pen victory as a potential destabilizing factor for the European Union.  Unlike the paradoxical Trump trade, markets are pretty sure this one wouldn't suddenly turn out to be horrible for the bond market and amazing for stocks.

As such, European stocks and bonds have been under varying amounts of pressure as Le Pen's chances have ebbed and flowed.  The past 2 days have seen the odds of a Le Pen victory shrink enough for European stocks and bond yields to stop losing ground and head back in the other direction.  

As far as US markets are concerned, Treasuries and MBS have moved almost exclusively during the times of day that European markets are open (and in the same direction implied by European bonds).  There's no reason to expect that to stop until after Sunday's election in France, barring an unexpectedly potent fiscal or geopolitical headline.