MBS Live Day Ahead: Yellen in Position to Break Post-Election Bond Market Pattern

A series of "higher lows" and "lower highs" is the defining characteristic of a consolidation pattern.  The following chart highlights the current consolidation with the white lines.  (Note: some of the candlesticks are outside the lines due to intraday activity, but the lines are set based on closing yields.  As you can imagine, it wouldn't really impact the pattern, apart from making the lines slightly farther apart).

The big-ticket events in the coming days (most of the focus is on Yellen's congressional testimony today at 10am) have the power to push rates back toward recent highs or lows.  If that happens, they'd be breaking out of the consolidation pattern.  From a technical standpoint, that would suggest increased momentum in the direction of the break.  

In other words, if rates start moving with conviction in either direction, they're more likely to keep moving in that direction--at least until they run into recent extremes.  At that point we'd be watching for a bounce or a break to get a read on longer-term momentum.  

With respect to Yellen's testimony, keep in mind that there's an initial reading of prepared remarks followed by Q&A with the friendly folks in congress.  That means a more provocative question might not be answered until well after the 10am start time.  Bottom line, it's an ongoing potential market mover throughout the morning hours.