MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Are Officially in a Positive Short-Term Trend

Bonds Are Officially in a Positive Short-Term Trend.  This was also the case heading into mid January, but steady selling following Yellen's speech (Jan 18) shattered the dream of a deeper recovery from post-election highs.  As of Jan 25th, we may well have worried that the longer-term uptrend would be back en vogue--something that we could identify by a break above mid-December highs in Treasury yields.

But bonds bounced on the 26th, and they've been in a fairly linear downtrend since then.  As the chart shows, yesterday (2nd candlestick from the right... the big green one) was the strongest day of that trend, and it challenged the lower boundary.  

Without a doubt, the notion of a meaningful rally is the underdog since the election.  It stands to reason that  there's a far higher probability of strong moves being met with logical resistance.  In plainer terms, if rates make a strong move to the lower yellow line, there's more motivation than normal for a bounce that keeps them between the lines.

There are no major market movers on tap as far as econ data is concerned today.  The 3yr Treasury auction at 1pm has some chance to have a modest effect, but markets are far more interested in tomorrow's 10yr auction (and Thursday's 30yr).