Ops Efficiency, Non-QM, AI Governance Tools; M&A Strategy; Election Results and Lending; FEMA Changes

All of you out there wishing there were fewer people on the roads or in line at the post office, take heart. Lenders with a long time horizon, not so much. Apparently, even paradise is having trouble keeping its population up: The Census Bureau released updated projections through 2100 for 25 countries and U.S. territories, revealing that population declines in American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands are already underway and expected to continue through the century, alongside updated data for more than 16,600 regions worldwide. That doesn’t bode so well for home sellers or lenders, frankly. In other news impacting lenders and servicers, Bloomberg reports that FEMA stopped publishing key data on disaster aid. Not only that, but FEMA’s maps (some 20+ years old) undercount the U.S. flooding risk by about 6 million homes, many in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida, big lending areas. Are these good things for our nation? (More below.) (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Truework, a Checkr company, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIEA solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with TXMBA’s Scott Norman on housing affordability as a bipartisan priority following the midterm elections, the Texas MBA’s continued advocacy and education efforts on behalf of the mortgage industry, and its upcoming November 16 Texas Housing Summit in Austin, bringing together leaders across mortgage lending, homebuilding, banking, and title services.)

Lender and Broker Products, Services, and Software

Every broker knows this call. A client is on the phone. They’re ready to refinance, and they’re holding another lender’s loan estimate. You know you can beat it. But if you say “let me work the numbers and call you back,” you’ve probably lost them. Most never pick up. Rocket Pro Quick Counter, our November Rocket Pro Power Play, replaces the callback with a counter. Build a real loan estimate live, and deliver hard numbers before they hang up. A broker brought us the problem through The Big Pitch. We built the answer together. Power Plays have landed every month since April. September improved base price by 60 bps on agency, conventional, FHA, and VA, with no end date. October launched Orbit, a partner excellence program that gives you more based on the strength of your partnership, not just its size. One real move a month. Follow along for what’s next. Please confirm receipt and let me know if anything needs to be adjusted. When this runs, please also send me a proof of placement.

It’s time for you to get a slice of a growing market. Homeowners age 55+ hold $14.5 trillion in home equity, representing half of total US homeowner equity. That scale gives mortgage professionals a sizable market to serve beyond purchase and refinance. Finance of America partnered to develop a white paper on how later-life lending could help uncover new paths to grow your business. Download it now to see how this overlooked pool of home equity could become a meaningful business opportunity within the clients you already serve. Finance of America | NMLS 2285.

Income and employment verification has gotten faster. The workflow around it? Not always. On November 19 at 1PM ET, LenderLogix and Argyle are hosting a webinar to show how their integration keeps verification inside the lender’s existing LOS workflow, with Premium Mortgage Corporation joining to talk about how they’re using it in practice. They’ll walk through the connection, the day-to-day workflow, what Premium has seen so far, and take questions live. Register here!

Your AI governance policy is only the beginning. When AI acts inside a mortgage workflow, your team still needs clear answers: Was it authorized? What was it allowed to do? Which authority applied? And where is the proof? Crittora controls AI at the moment it acts. Crittora’s CAAB solution evaluates whether an AI action is within defined authority before it reaches a tool, API, or mortgage system. Crittora Mortgage GSE Governance aligned Packs help turn those decisions into audit-ready proof. Control AI before action. Evidence after action. Less time chasing proof at audit. Crittora is the only AI security company with 100 years of combined mortgage experience. We are FRAME certified by MISMO, and ready to help you move your governance policy to production. Learn more at https://www.crittora.com/.

Partner with Pennymac & Access a 15 bps Credit on Your First Non-QM Loan! Don’t let non-traditional income hold back your production. As a Pennymac partner, you have access to our full Non-QM suite (Bank Statements, 1099, WVOE, Asset Based, and DSCR) built to convert complex scenarios into closed loans. Plus, receive a 15 bps pricing credit on your first locked Non-QM loan with Pennymac TPO through December 31st*. Ready to expand your reach? Sign up to become a partner or contact your dedicated AE today. *Exclusions apply. Must be an approved TPO partner at lock. Cannot be combined with other offers. On consumer loans, 15 bps credit must be applied as a direct lender credit toward borrower closing costs or rate reduction. DSCR/business-purpose loans exempt. Equal Housing Lender. NMLS #35953.

How a $2.2B community bank gained 40 percent mortgage efficiency! Queensborough National Bank and Trust (QNBT) moved its mortgage division to MeridianLink® Mortgage and went live in less than 90 days. The bank now reports 40 percent greater operational efficiency, and its loan officers run nine pricing scenarios in about two minutes, down from up to two hours. That added efficiency is helping QNBT grow. Loan volume has increased by roughly $1 million every month this year, and instead of adding operations staff to keep pace, the bank is investing in more loan officers and sales capacity. With faster pricing and more time for meaningful conversations, loan officers can respond to borrower questions and explore options in real time. See how QNBT modernized its mortgage operation and what it’s integrating next. Read the full case study.

The next Chrisman Demo Day is November 19 and is a free perk for all Chrisman Marketplace members. If you're a technology or service provider and haven't joined the Marketplace yet, reach out to Chloe Murray at info@chrismancommentary.com to learn more.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR on M&A

We’re seeing an important lesson play out in today’s market: timing matters. Companies that wait too long to explore their options often find that the opportunity has passed. Potential premiums disappear, buyers shift their attention to larger or more prepared opportunities, and in some cases, businesses close with little or no remaining value. Others lose momentum and leverage by allowing the process to become unnecessarily complicated or prolonged. In many cases, these outcomes can be avoided with earlier planning and the right guidance. If you’re considering what’s next for your business, a confidential conversation with STRATMOR Group is a good place to start. There’s no cost or obligation, just an opportunity to understand your options. Contact Amanda Gibson to start the conversation.

Election Results: Much Ado About Nothing for Lenders?

The Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections could bring changes in trade, spending priorities, and artificial intelligence policies, but major economic forces like affordability pressures and government spending will persist, economists say. If high rates cut off spending, we could easily veer toward a recession. While Democrats may seek to reverse spending cuts and address affordability issues, most U.S. economic policy is driven by the executive branch, limiting legislative impact. Not much was said on the campaign trail about possible solutions to housing shortages, costs of homeownership and other issues that impact our housing markets.

The Democrats have control of the House and Senate, which initiate legislation. Most expect multiple investigations, hearings, and impeachment attempts on President Trump and members of his administration. Hearings and investigations, which very well could be what voters want, and not much new legislation, which could also be what they want. Don’t look for a lot of veto overrides. Recall that Donald Trump oversees the Agencies, which create regulations after established comment periods.

One thing to keep an eye on is state-level activity. Changes at the state level may be much more relevant to lenders, as much of the enforcement activity has moved into this sector as during Trump II activity at the Federal level has been cut.

Housing and the economy? The federal government has a $40 trillion+ deficit. Is anyone going to do anything about it? It helps to fuel inflation, requiring borrowing trillions of dollars annually to pay for the interest on the deficits. The government is paying high rates to fund spending, and also to refinance debt from prior deficits.

With government split between the White House and Congress as a result of Tuesday’s election, we can look forward to each party accusing the other of blocking agenda’s… many prefer gridlock to what we have now. We can expect that the federal government will continue to run extremely high deficits and a growing total federal debt, leading to more borrowing. Most will be hopeful, but few truly expect major changes in the housing, or mortgage, markets as a result of the midterms.

Today at 9:30 PT (the) NAMB is hosting a webinar about the election and thoughts on how the voting might impact brokers: NAMB Weekly Success Builder Special Edition - 2026 Elections.

And tomorrow the MBA is having a Town Hall at noon PT on insights on the new political landscape, key policy priorities, and what lies ahead for the industry's legislative and regulatory agenda. Register here. MAA members may attend at no cost using promo code MAA2026 and can submit questions in advance to townhall@mba.org.

Weather and Natural Disaster Updates

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster announcements set off policies and procedures around the lending and servicing world, as well as insurance and other financial services. Disasters don’t care about politics, right?

Back in June we had plenty of warnings about hurricane season approaching, and how mortgage lenders should ensure staff are trained on disaster-related guidance from agencies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, VA, and FEMA, while maintaining clear policies for identifying disaster-affected properties, conducting inspections, and complying with investor requirements. Equally important, lenders should regularly test business continuity and disaster recovery plans to ensure operations can continue if employees, offices, or critical infrastructure are directly impacted by a natural disaster.

Onity Mortgage posted a Disaster Announcement regarding FEMA’s declaration, for Indiana DR-4933 and updated miscellaneous entries with monitoring end dates on/or before March 25th, 2026, that were removed.

On August 25, 2026, with DR-4933, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared that federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to counties in Indiana to supplement recovery efforts in the areas affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding from August 11, 2026, to August 24, 2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20260903-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

There were DR-4945-OH, DR-4949-WI, DR-4953-WV.

On 10/2/2026, with DR-4945, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, flooding, and landsides from 8/10/2026, to 8/22/2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20261002-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

On 10/7/2026, with DR-4949, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to counties affected by severe storms and tornadoes on 7/27/2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20261004-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

On 10/7/2026, with DR-4953, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to counties affected by severe storms and flooding from 8/14/2026, to 8/18/2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20261005-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

On 9/25/2026, with DR-4933-IN NR 05, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to counties in Indiana affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding from 8/11/2026, to 8/24/2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20261006-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

Onity Mortgage posted a Disaster Announcement regarding FEMA’s declaration, for Ohio DR-4945 and updated miscellaneous entries with monitoring end dates on/or before April 5, 2026, that were removed.

Onity Mortgage posted a Disaster Announcement regarding FEMA’s declaration, for West Virginia DR-4953, and Wisconsin DR-4949, and updated miscellaneous entries with monitoring end dates on/or before April 5, 2026, that were removed.

DR-4955-FL? On 10/30/2026, with DR-4955, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to counties in Florida affected by Hurricane Isaias from 10/6/2026, to 10/12/2026. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20261014-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

Capital Markets

What will the financial press do without relying on talking about the Fed and rates? Perhaps… rely on economic news? The Federal Reserve will begin transitioning to fewer rate-setting meetings in 2027, with two of its eight annual meetings dedicated to broader strategy discussions by 2028. Chair Kevin Warsh says the change will allow policymakers to focus on longer-term economic issues rather than incremental rate decisions. Supporters cite more time for deliberation, while critics warn that fewer rate decisions could increase market volatility.

U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS posted modest losses to close last week, largely concentrated in shorter maturities, but still secured a fifth consecutive week of gains despite continued volatility in global technology stocks. Stronger-than-expected October employment data, with payrolls rising 165k (versus 70k expectations), unemployment unexpectedly declining to 4.1 percent despite an increase in labor force participation, and wage growth accelerating 0.4 percent month-over-month, pushed rate-hike expectations higher and reinforced December Fed tightening as the market's base case. Keep in mind that BLS employment reports have remained unusually volatile throughout the year.

At a high level, markets shifted decisively toward “risk-off” sentiment last week. Concerns over a potential AI bubble, increased regulatory uncertainty following the Democratic midterm sweep, and equity market weakness triggered a flight to safety, pushing Treasury yields lower despite stronger-than-expected October payrolls and renewed expectations of further Fed tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7-basis points to 4.86 percent, while mortgage-backed securities finally gained some traction. The Fannie Mae current coupon declined nearly 14-basis points to 5.92 percent, spreads tightened, and the modeled par mortgage rate fell below 7 percent to 6.99 percent, signaling improving mortgage pricing and recovering investor demand for specified pools.

The highlight of this week’s economic calendar will be tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index report, with no year-over-year readings available because of last October’s shutdown-related data gap. Softer core inflation would offer some relief after September’s upside surprise but would likely leave a December rate hike intact.

Other releases of note this week include October NFIB Small Business Optimism, October Existing Home Sales (expected to fall 5.0 percent), October PPI, 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury note auctions. Though the Treasury market will be closed for Veterans Day on Wednesday, there will still be a commentary and podcast. Today’s economic calendar has September Wholesale Inventories, of little consequence, followed by the $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction results. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices little changed from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 4.53, and the 10-year yielding 4.85 after closing last week at 4.86 percent.