Only a Modest Decline For Mortgage Apps. Next Week Should Improve

By: Matthew Graham •

Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9.

That's an important date, because a substantial majority of a fairly sharp decline in interest rates occurred AFTER October 9. As such, next week's data is a great opportunity to see the impact of lower rates. 

Purchase activity took another step back, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% for the week and running 16% below year-ago levels. Refinances were nearly unchanged, slipping just 0.4%, but remained 56% lower than a year earlier.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.50%, its highest level since November 2023 and more than a percentage point above its level a year ago. MBA's Joel Kan notes, “As a result, borrowers continue to rely more on ARM loans to help lower their monthly payments."

ARMs accounted for 10.5% of all applications, the highest share since October 2025. The refinance share also ticked higher, reaching 37.7% of total applications from 37.0% the previous week, with a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications being the main driver of the small overall decline.

Mortgage Rate Summary:

  • 30yr Fixed: 7.50% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.83 (from 0.84)
  • 15yr Fixed: 6.87% (from 6.71%) | Points: 0.90 (from 1.05)
  • Jumbo 30yr: 7.49% (from 7.39%) | Points: 0.70 (from 0.52)
  • FHA: 7.19% (from 7.14%) | Points: 1.21 (from 1.36)
  • 5/1 ARM: 6.54% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.13 (from 1.69)