Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch

Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+.  While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions.