Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
By:
Matthew Graham
•
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week.
Econ Data / Events
-
- Average earnings mm (Apr)
- 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev
- Non Farm Payrolls (Apr)
- 115K vs 62K f'cast, 178K prev
- Participation Rate (Apr)
- 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.9% prev
- Unemployment rate mm (Apr)
- 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev
- Consumer Sentiment (May)
- 48.2 vs 49.5 f'cast, 49.8 prev
- Sentiment: 1y Inflation (May)
- 4.5% vs -- f'cast, 4.7% prev
- Sentiment: 5y Inflation (May)
- 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.5% prev
- Average earnings mm (Apr)
Market Movement Recap
08:32 AM
No major reaction to jobs report. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.375
10:46 AM
Slightly stronger but leveling off. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.356
02:13 PM
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.356