Analytics, Servicing, AI, Warehouse, Doctor Products; MBS Trends: Credit Scores Matter
Lenders are always analyzing automation for parts of the manufacturing process, and industry vet and STRATMOR Senior Advisor Sue Woodard has her thoughts about last week’s MBA conference. “The IMB has always been a barometer for where this industry actually is, not where slide decks say it should be. This year, the signal was unmistakable. The mood is more optimistic than it has been in years, attendance is strong, and conversations have shifted from survival to execution. But that optimism is disciplined. Lenders are encouraged, not complacent, and the challenges in front of us are well understood. What stood out most in conversations across the conference floor was not a single technology, product, or policy headline. It was a shared recognition that the industry is at an inflection point. The next phase will be defined less by bold proclamations and more by focused decisions, thoughtful adoption, and follow-through. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Cenlar. Cenlar supports lenders and investors with scalable, best-in-class loan servicing built for today’s complex market. From compliance to customer experience, Cenlar helps portfolios perform better, borrowers stay supported, and servicers focus on growth. We’re proud to partner with a true industry leader. Hear an interview with Experian's Joy Mina and Ken Tromer on how to access reliable income, employment, and asset data upfront in the origination process, enabling more precise prequalification decisions while reducing friction and improving the borrower’s early-stage experience.)
Correspondent and Wholesale Products for Brokers and Lenders
“LoanStream, DBA of OCMBC, Inc. is thrilled to welcome Wendy Licis as SVP Eastern Divisional Sales Manager and Brian Herbert as SVP Western Divisional Sales Manager. Wendy brings a standout track record of building and scaling high-performing sales teams, with deep expertise across TPO and Non-QM production, having successfully launched sales platforms, led regional and divisional teams, and driven sustainable growth through strategic leadership and strong partner relationships. Brian complements that momentum with a proven history of leading top-tier sales organizations in third-party originations, fueling growth through talent development, collaborative leadership, and trusted partner connections. With Wendy and Brian at the helm of our East and West divisions, we’re excited for the energy, leadership, and growth they’ll drive as LoanStream continues to expand. Plus, looking to sharpen your knowledge on DPA programs? LoanStream is offering a MaxONE DPA Webinar plus a CalHFA Dream For All Refresher (CA). Register now.”
Yesterday was the big game. Today belongs to Titan MD, a powerful 100 percent DOCTOR FINANCING program from Orion Lending, built to deliver exceptional buying power with less friction. Titan MD has no Mortgage Insurance or AUS requirement; loan amounts up to $2 MILLION, with fixed and ARM options for primary residences. Qualification is simplified with a 680 minimum FICO (only one score required), student loan payments excluded, and gift funds permitted for funds to close and reserves. Few programs offer this level of flexibility and strength for newly qualified and seasoned doctors. Titan MD: built for brokers, trusted by doctors. Interested in learning more? Attend one of the upcoming live trainings this week: Tuesday or Thursday or contact your Orion AE.
PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), is committed to providing mortgage lenders with a sustainable funding source in an uncertain market. With over 30 years’ experience and a well-capitalized, diversified financial holding company. PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending provides confidence in meeting our mortgage lending partners’ funding needs. With exceptional operational performance, and a focus on relationship-driven business geared towards long-term success, we do not dwell on unnecessary fees. With PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending there are NO non-usage fees, NO application or renewal fees, NO third party due diligence fees or Third Party Doc Custodians and NO interest charged on the day of loan settlement. If you are attending the TMBA Southern Secondary Conference in Houston and interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending please contact Brent Amos, (559)553-5695.
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders
“Are your servicing operations ready for 2026? ICE’s servicing experts are headed to the MBA Servicing Solutions Conference and Expo to discuss how technology can solve some of the most pressing industry pain points. ICE will be at the Gaylord Texan Dallas 1 meeting room Feb. 16-18 and ready to show you how MSP®, ICE’s industry-leading loan servicing system, supports compliance, streamlines operations, and enhances the borrower experience. Check out the full conference schedule and make sure to stop by and say hi. We look forward to seeing you in Texas!”
“ServiceLink launched new enhanced features to our auction buyer portal, aiming to help servicers sell auction properties quickly. ServiceLink’s auction platform streamlines disposition processes and helps servicers reach their goals through a wide variety of strategies and solutions, centered around engaging buyers and simplifying processes. Buyer-focused updates include elements like real-time transition tracking, AI powered recommendations and chat, buyer profile and secure document management and tailored user-specific notifications. Reach out to us today to get started or visit here to learn more.”
Last call for lenders who want a clearer way to evaluate AI in mortgage technology. The on-demand replay of The Executive’s Guide to Evaluating AI in Mortgage Technology is still available, featuring Brooke Anderson-Tompkins, Founder and CEO of Bridge AIvisory, in conversation with Patrick O’Brien, CEO of LenderLogix. The discussion focuses on how leaders can move beyond AI buzzwords and marketing claims to better understand transparency, data usage, accountability, and long-term risk and value. For lenders who missed the live session but want a practical, executive-level framework for evaluating AI, this is an opportunity to catch the full conversation on demand. Access the recording here.
Innovation has shifted servicing from manual, siloed data systems to automated, cloud-based platforms that simplify workflows and improve customer support. Forward-thinking servicing teams are setting this pace with the ElevateSM Loan Servicing Solution from Dark Matter Technologies. Elevate is a modern servicing platform designed to automate time-sensitive reporting, streamline interim servicing, and strengthen borrower engagement. Integrated with the Empower® LOS, Elevate reduces duplicate data handling, accelerates onboarding from close to servicing, and provides teams with clearer visibility with fewer manual steps. Borrowers benefit, too, through a secure self-service portal across mortgage, auto, consumer, and commercial loans. Why rely on yesterday’s tools when servicing is pushing new boundaries? See the latest from Dark Matter at MBA’s Servicing Solutions Conference & Expo, Feb. 16–19 at booth # 616 or book time to meet on-site.
Going to the MBA Mortgage Servicing Conference in Dallas Feb 16 to 18? BlackWolf Advisory Group will be onsite meeting servicers to talk about real servicing solutions: technology enhancements, operational efficiency, compliance oversight, and/or subservicer management. If you are trying to reduce operational friction, improve borrower experience, or tighten controls without slowing the business down, let’s connect. Email Info@BlackWolfAdvisory.com or visit BlackWolf Advisory to schedule a quick meeting.
Early Title Insight, Backed by First American Data & Analytics! VeriTitle delivers expedited title intelligence at the start of loan origination, helping lenders identify potential title issues early and eliminate last-minute surprises. Built on First American Data & Analytics’ comprehensive public records and property data, VeriTitle provides insight into liens, tax status, judgments, foreclosure activity, and legal description. Delivered via API, VeriTitle fits into existing workflows and supports smoother mortgage and home equity lending from application through closing. Learn how VeriTitle fits your lending workflow here or call us at 800-333-4510.
Now Next Later is today at 1:00 PM ET and is sponsored by Insellerate. Jeremy and Sasha welcome Wendy Lee, Managing Partner at LOGS Legal Group, kicking off her new monthly slot on the second Monday of each month. The focus: where servicing tech stands and what's expected to dominate at the MBA Servicing Conference.
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Mortgage Prices: A Matter of Supply and Demand
January mortgage issuance surged to $119.8 billion, the strongest January since 2022 and the ninth straight month above $100 billion, signaling a sector that has clearly regained altitude and pointing to 2026 shaping up to be the best year for originators in some time. The growth is increasingly refinance-driven, with refi share jumping to 33 percent of conventional 30-year issuance and 43.6 percent of Ginnie Mae II, as refinance volumes roughly doubled year over year in both channels while purchase activity softened. Loan counts reinforced the "recovery" narrative, rising nearly 16 percent from a year ago and more than 55 percent from January 2023, with Ginnie Mae production showing especially strong gains and confirming that 2023 likely marked the cycle’s bottom. On the supply side, issuance remained concentrated in the 5.0 percent and 5.5 percent coupons, reflecting mortgage rates hovering just above 6 percent, while Ginnie Mae II gross issuance rose nearly 2 percent month-over-month and more than 28 percent year over year. Ginnie Mae continues to command a growing share of overall supply, accounting for more than 42 percent of January issuance, the highest since late last year and well above historical norms, underscoring how government-backed production is increasingly driving the market.
January prepayment speeds (February factor date) slowed meaningfully, with Fannie Mae 30-year CPRs falling 13 percent month over month to 7.6, though remaining nearly 50 percent higher than a year ago as seasonals, fewer days in the month, and severe winter weather weighed on activity. Rate declines were modest (but supportive), with Conventional, VA, and FHA mortgage rates all lower on the month and since October for that matter, gradually expanding the share of borrowers with refinance incentive to the highest levels seen since early 2022 across products. Within the coupon stack, in-the-money coupons held up better while deeply out-of-the-money bonds behaved like near bullet structures, and Ginnie Mae II speeds also slowed broadly. Despite January’s softness, improving seasonals, stabilizing rates, and a growing incentive base point to a likely pickup in prepayments in the next report, with aggregate Fannie speeds expected to rise modestly.
Geographic specified pools remain a key tool for managing prepayment risk in Agency MBS portfolios, as investor behavior varies meaningfully by state, with Texas, Florida, and New York the most commonly targeted. Florida currently leads in issuance and has the highest delinquency rates of the three, while New York offers the slowest prepayment speeds and therefore commands the highest payups; Texas, by contrast, has seen sharply rising average loan sizes (up more than 30 percent since 2022, which makes its pools far more refinance-sensitive and faster to prepay when rates move in the money. As a result, Texas specified pools provide the least prepayment protection but trade cheapest, reinforcing the tradeoff that in specified pools, investors ultimately get exactly what they pay for.
Credit scores remain the clearest predictor of future delinquencies in the Agency mortgage market, and recent data show Ginnie Mae delinquencies, particularly in FHA and VA loans, remain elevated versus pre-QE4 norms. Severe delinquencies rise sharply as FICO scores fall, with borrowers in the 600–650 range showing far higher stress than higher-score cohorts, even though lower-FICO borrowers make up a relatively small share of the overall universe. For investors, this dispersion creates both risk and opportunity, as higher delinquency and roll rates in lower-FICO, higher-coupon pools can eventually lead to par buyouts, underscoring the importance of monitoring credit distribution, coupon exposure, and roll-rate trends closely.
Capital Markets
Last week’s macro headlines were defined as much by what we did not get as by what we did. The partial government shutdown pushed the January employment report into this week, leaving markets to fill in the gaps with second-tier data. December’s JOLTS report showed a labor market that is clearly cooling (but not yet breaking), with job openings down to 6.5 million, nearly one million fewer than a year ago. Announced layoffs have started to rise, hinting that more firms could turn to headcount reductions as cost pressures persist. Manufacturing surprised to the upside, with the ISM index climbing to 52.6 in January as companies pulled forward orders ahead of potential tariffs and ongoing price increases. At the same time, both manufacturers and service providers reported higher prices paid, keeping inflation very much in the conversation and leaving the Fed stuck balancing growth and price stability.
A slow economy leads to lower rates, right? The mood on Main Street looks far less upbeat. Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, driven by a growing share of people who say jobs are hard to get and by lingering anxiety over the cost of living and global conflicts. Confidence is a noisy and often unreliable recession signal, but it still matters, especially in an election cycle. With voters, homebuyers, and builders all feeling strained, the odds are rising that policymakers look for ways to improve housing sentiment, whether through mortgage insurance premium cuts, expanded GSE activity, or other targeted support.
Don’t forget that the markets are still digesting Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair. The initial reaction was a selloff in longer-dated Treasuries on the view that he would be less inclined to lean on the balance sheet, though yields have since settled back into familiar ranges. Treasuries finished last week quietly after a volatile stretch for equities, helped by slightly lower Q1 borrowing needs and renewed demand for safety. For now, investors remain cautious, with only limited Fed easing priced in for mid-2026 and a clear wait-and-see attitude ahead of the next round of jobs and inflation data.
This week’s economic data includes the rescheduled January payrolls report on Wednesday (along with benchmark revisions), with Wednesday’s CPI report pushed back to Friday. Other reports of interest include retail sales, employment costs, business inventories, import/export prices, the budget statement, and existing home sales. The Treasury will conduct the $125 billion quarterly refunding, which will be held tomorrow through Thursday. MBS Class A and Class B 48-hours are on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, with Class C net out on Friday.
Today’s lone data point is the NY Fed’s Survey on Consumer Expectations (0.3% decline in inflation expectation from last year). Markets will also receive remarks from Fed Governor Waller, Fed Governor Miran, and outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic before today's close. Monday starts with Agency MBS prices worse than Friday’s close by a few ticks (32nds), the 2-year yielding 3.51, and the 10-year yielding 4.24 after closing Friday at 4.21 percent.