MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Flirt With Highest Yields Since July 2015

Bond markets begin the day still reeling from yesterday's OPEC-driven rout.  We noted in yesterday's closing commentary that yields bounced on an ominous floor at at 2.35% (10yr yield).  That was ominous because it has been a relevant pivot point, as seen in the chart below.  The implication of a failure to break 2.35% was that we risked moving to the next higher pivot point today.  Indeed, yields have been banging their heads against 2.42% since 4am this morning.

While yesterday's drama was clearly a product of inflation concerns driven by the OPEC deal, today's weakness is getting more motivation from the non-inflation-related components of bond yields.  This can be seen in the following chart where the the non-inflation-related components actually moved lower yesterday (blue line) while the inflation component surged (green line).  Now today, the non-inflation-related component is bouncing higher (highlighted in the white oval).

Economic data is moderate, with inconsequential Jobless Claims leading off at 8:30am.  The headliner is ISM Manufacturing at 10am, though "headliner" is a relative term at the moment considering markets are generally less interested in economic data at the moment.  Once again, we can expect to see traders take cues primarily from other traders as the market decides if 2.42% will remain a technical ceiling for now.