MBS Live Day Ahead: Empty Calendar Ahead as Bonds Back Down From Long-Term Inflection Point

Treasuries technically hit overnight highs late in yesterday's session, but it was the overnight hours that saw the more substantial weakness.  Long-time MBS Live members may recall the 2.34% pivot point as perhaps the starkest dividing line (or pivot/inflection point, if you prefer) during the 2010-2012 time frame.  Even though it's been approached with a more casual attitude in 2014-2016, old pivot points are always worth considering.

So perhaps that helps account for the fact that 10yr yields seemed to freeze up once they hit 2.34% in overnight trading.  I'm sure they would be more than willing to break above, given the proper motivation, but in waiting for the next cue, they instead found inspiration from European bond markets, which will be covered in today's first update on MBS Live.

In short, ECB President Draghi had some bond-friendly comments, which ultimately led to a big rally in European bonds and enough of a spillover in Treasuries to get 10yr yields back to positive territory to start the day. 

From here, the event calendar is quite limited.  There is no significant economic data.  Fed speakers are the only games in town, with Bullard, Dudley, George, Evans, Kaplan, and Powell all on tap before the end of the day (Powell will be after the close, if anyone cares).  Personally, I don't see any major risks in Fed-speak considering they've been all but promising a December rate hike recently.  The risks are asymmetric, really, because the only surprise would be if Dudley (the only true "heavy hitter" in today's lineup) said something about the Fed not being as close to a hike as we might all be thinking.  Not too likely, but the point is that it would be hard for them to do more harm than we've already had done to us this week.