Stronger Start + Early Weakness
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Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields were at session lows ahead of the 8:30am data, but have moved steadily higher afterword. The early weakness almost perfectly offsets the overnight gains, leaving bonds close to unchanged heading into the PM hours.
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GDP and Jobless Claims could equally contribute to the move. Although GDP came in weaker than expected, the "whisper" numbers were lower as traders expected an even bigger hit from a rush of pre-tariff import activity. The jobless claims result was more straightforward as 2025 has now dropped to the lowest level of non-adjusted, week by week jobless claims compared to recent relevant years.
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