New Homes Sales Bounce Back After Hurricane Season

Those who spend any time digging into home construction and home sales figures in the U.S. know that, of the 4 census divisions, the South accounts for about twice as much activity as the other 3 regions combined.  For example, in data released today for the month of November, the South accounted for an annual pace of 417k new home sales out of a nationwide total of 664k ( 62% of the total)

Two months earlier, the South accounted for 472k out of 736k (64% of the total). But in October, it was only 366k versus a 627k (58% of the total). In other words, the South wasn't pulling its typical weight in bolstering new home sales. There's no need to overanalyze a simple phenomenon.  Major weather events and/or natural disasters routinely show up in housing market data.  

The following table shows the regional breakdown with the obvious drop-off in October in the south.  

While it was only a 13.9% improvement from October, the outright numbers are so large in the South that they more than made up for the 41% decline in the Northeast and the 7.5% decline in the West, ultimately helping the national numbers bump back up by 5.9%.

In outright terms, the 664k annual pace matches the 2nd lowest level of the year seen in January.  October was the only month that was lower.  But even then, October and every other month of the past 1.5 years have fallen inside a narrow sideways range.

This lukewarm bowl of porridge is emblematic of much of the data pertaining to new home construction and sales recently.  Activity is down from the post-pandemic peak, not making any moves for better or worse, but still in respectable territory relative to pre-pandemic levels.