Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk

Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk

While there was certainly a bit of an upward drift in Treasury yields through the end of last week, mortgage rates and MBS saw it as a bit more of a sideways grind.  Last Thursday's data had a chance to create some momentum, but ultimately failed.  Thursday is also this week's most active day for potentially significant econ data with Retail Sales likely getting the most attention.  That said, "attention" has a lot to do with the size of beat/miss.  As always, the market is already priced to reflect the median forecast, so there's no way to know if one outcome is more likely than another.  What we do know is that Thursday's data is not in the same league as the big jobs report or several other events in early November.  It's just the best we have this week.