Mortgage Rates Fall to 2 Week Lows After Fed's Friendly Message

Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment on monetary policy in a setting that's slightly less formal than normal.  Despite the scenic backdrop, Jackson Hole speeches by the Fed Chair have a somewhat reliable history of relevance to financial markets--especially those that dictate interest rate movement.

In this year's case, the symposium was almost perfectly timed to give Chair Powell an opportunity to append his last major appearance in the press conference that followed the Fed meeting just over 3 weeks ago. Rates liked what he had to say back then as well, but in today's speech, he said it a bit more forcefully.

In not so many words, Powell made it clear that the default game plan is to cut rates at the September meeting just under 4 weeks from now.  In fact, as far as financial markets are concerned, the only uncertainty is whether the rate cut will be the minimum 0.25% or double that amount. 

To be fair and clear, that's about where the market ended up after the last speech, but that was followed by several big ticket market movers that temporarily convinced traders the Fed would be cutting by AT LEAST 0.50% a few short days later.

Over the 2 weeks that followed, several economic reports forced a rethink of those assumptions, thus putting Powell in a position to put a ceiling on near term rate expectations (rather than comment on how quickly rates might move lower).  His speech certainly delivered said ceiling and also stayed clear of signaling any low rate exuberance. 

For their part, mortgage rates had a "nice" day, making a modest move down to the lowest levels in just over 2 weeks.  For those who prefer their milestones a bit more grandiose, that also makes today the 3rd best day in well over a year.