Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction

Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily bond market movement because it is often the biggest candlestick (or bar on a bar chart) between the 10th and 15th of any given month.  This was not destined to be the case today.  The as-expected result was the crux of the problem.  Even when looking beyond the headline numbers, there were offsetting factors with the unrounded number being bond friendly and the shelter component making the opposite argument.  Bonds ended almost perfectly flat despite some 2-way volatility in the morning.

Econ Data / Events
    • Core M/M CPI
      • 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev
      • (unrounded, 0.165)
    • Core Y/Y CPI
      • 3.2 vs 3.2 f'cast, 3.3 prev
Market Movement Recap
10:15 AM

Initially slightly weaker after CPI, but bouncing back now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 3.822

01:37 PM

Off best levels, but still stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 3.826