Things Just Got Serious (In a Good Way For Bonds)

This is one of those weeks that stands a good chance of being looked back up as the moment where the clouds of indecision parted and true trends were confirmed.  Between Powell's equivocal openness to "multiple cuts" in 2024 on Wednesday and this morning's sharply weaker jobs report (something Powell didn't even know about on Wednesday), the more aggressive rate cut narrative is quickly coming into focus.  There are still two CPI reports and another jobs report before the September Fed meeting.  If they don't offer strong counterpoints to recent data, the rate cut cycle has not only begun, but it will likely involve a certain sense of urgency.