Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell

Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell

Opinions certainly vary as to whether today's communications from the Fed and Fed Chair Powell were dovish or hawkish, so let's focus on facts.  The changes in the statement itself were bond-friendly but not enough for bonds to rally.  In fact, there was modest selling until Powell began answering questions.  Powell himself said a September rate cut was one possible scenario assuming the data remains consistent with recent progress toward goals.  He was very clear, however, to say that no decisions have been made.  A strong case can be made that today's rally isn't exclusively on Powell.  Geopolitical headlines and month-end trading definitely had an impact.  Still, history will remember that Powell did everything he could do to leave the door open for a September cut, short of promising that it would happen.