More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway

The winning streak continues for the bond market with 10yr yields dropping roughly 6bps by the 3pm close, just barely edging under the 4.34% technical level.  Improvement was linear through 2pm with only a temporary volatile reaction to the JOLTS data.  It's not entirely clear that the mid-day gains had anything to do with JOLTS, in fact.  It's just as easy to argue that the bond market is taking a lead-off in anticipation of softer economic data ahead.  That's all well and good unless the data finds a way to surprise to the upside, but even then, some hope would be held out for the next CPI report next Wednesday.

Econ Data / Events
    • Job Openings (via JOLTS)
      • 8.059m vs 8.34m f'cast, 8.355m prev
      • Lower = better for rates
    • Job "Quits" 
      • 3.507m vs 3.329m prev 
      • lower = better for rates
Market Movement Recap
08:58 AM

moderately stronger overnight thanks to Europe.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.355

10:05 AM

Modest gains after mixed JOLTS.  MBS up an eighth.  10yr down 4.8bps at 4.343

01:56 PM

Modest additional gains into the PM.  10yr down 7bps at 4.321.  MBS up an eighth in 6.0 coupons and nearly a quarter in 5.5 coupons.

04:06 PM

Off the best levels, but holding most of the gains.  10yr down 6.1bps at 4.33 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).